Episode 523: The Bo and Baez Email Show
Date August 27, 2014 Summary Ben and Sam answer listener emails about bat speed, umpire bias, and error bars and then Play Index about Javier Baez and Bo Jackson. Topics * Bat speed & swing plane data * Win probability and run totals * World Series favorites * Error bars for WAR * Bo Jackson, Javier Baez, and four strikeout games * Even player splits * Umpire bias Intro Jason Falkner, "Contact" Banter * The managers extended Jack Zduriencik for multiple years. Ben and Sam thought that he was on the wobbly chair. * Ben does not consider the Mariners to be a well run team right now, and doesn't think they have great playoff chances for 2015. * Several listeners in the Facebook group have been sharing restults from Play Index searches they are running. * Tim Lincecum and Dan Haren are the only pitchers to qualify for the ERA title and have negative WAR in three consecutive seasons. * Only 19 times in MLB history has a pitcher walked four consecutive batters, without allowing a hit or out in between (Tony Sipp did recently). Email Questions * Dave (Silver Spring, MD): "Is there any data available on hitter's bat speed? It's discussed all the time but is there any hard data on who swings the fastest and if it correlates to production in any way? If the data doesn't exist do you think faster bat speed would correlate to better performance? Who do you think swings the fastest?" * Lee: "They attributed the Cardinals' success to the offense, noting that the Cardinals have won 80% of their games this season when they score four runs or more. Giving the present scoring environment, doesn't that corollary apply to most teams good and bad? Perhaps 80% is a bit high compared to the rest of the league but I would imagine that the Cards aren't doing anything too special within these parameters. Thoughts?" * Wes: "Imagine a universe in which a team goes unbeaten in the regular season with 162 5-3 victories. Knowing nothing else about their team, what odds would you put on their winning the World Series going into the playoffs. Would that be enough to make a team an actual favorite (51%)?" * Dan: "Just been listening to the podcast about Alex Gordon (Episode 517). I'm wondering if this could be solved by WAR being produced with confidence intervals. Alex Gordon could have the higher WAR but because his rating comes mostly from the defensive side he would have a bigger error bar. What do you think?" * Ian (San Diego, CA): "Erick Aybar's platoon splits are .276/.381/.383 and .275/.311/.388. Using the arbitrary benchmark of 4,000 plate appearances because Erick Aybar has just over that, is anyone else remotely that close to even? I know you're not my math monkeys but I always hear about extreme platoon splits and rarely hear about the opposite. Any insight would be great." * Miles: "to 538 article Do we hate this? It extends games by extending plate appearances but I think there is some charm to the fact that the umpire is helping out the party that is struggling. The pitcher who can't get one over the plate or the hitter who can't diagnose a ball from a strike. This seems a ripe area to shorten games but I'm not sure I'm ready to embrace the cold specter of robot umpires." Play Index * Javier Baez was 0-4 with 4 strikeouts in his last game. In just 21 career games he has already done this four times. * Bo Jackson was, as Sam describes, the "absolute king of four strikeout or more games." Jackson struck out 4 or more times in a game 19 times during his career. * Ryan Howard is the current leader with 27 four strikeout games. * Bo Jackson struck out in 32% of his plate appearances during an era in which players struck out 15% of the time. Notes * Sam, on Ben's "You sound particularly not wound up tonight, this is the least wound up I've heard you in some time. You sound like you're adjusting the levels." * Bat speed data is available to teams but not to the public. Sam thinks that Bryce Harper swings faster than Javier Baez. * MLB teams overall win 75% of games in which they score four runs or more. * Sam thinks a team would have to be a 126-win team in order to be a 50% or better favorite to win the World Series going into the playoffs. * Ben likes the idea of confidence intervals and errors bars for WAR but thinks it would be very difficult for fans to adopt. Sam dislikes it because he thinks it implies more specificity because exact error bars have been placed around the WAR figure. * Javier Baez struck out for the 40th time tonight, which is Tony Gwynn's career high for a season. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 523: The Bo and Baez Email Show * Four Strikes And You're Out by Etan Green Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes